Solar Savings in Texas — 2026

What the 2026 numbers look like in Texas

The August 2026 EIA residential rate for Texas is 15.91 cents/kWh, 12.4% below the 18.16-cent U.S. average. Installed cost is 2.25 $/W, a verified EnergySage September 2026 state marketplace average; sunlight uses the southeast humid-subtropical band planning band at 5.2 peak sun hours/day. A measured state installed price exists for Texas, so the cost side of this estimate starts from marketplace data rather than a national proxy. A statewide export-credit rule was verified for this state and is named below.

What actually moves the estimate in Texas

Holding a $150 monthly bill fixed, those inputs size a 6.39 kW array here against 6.06 kW at the national average, produce about 10,182 kWh in year one against 8,921 kWh, and put the interpolated payback at 13.7 years against 16.1 years. The 2.25 $/W price sits -20% relative to the 2.80 $/W benchmark.

That gap is arithmetic from published inputs, not a ranking of states and not an installer quote. Fixed monthly charges, non-bypassable charges, time-of-use periods, annual true-up caps, interconnection limits and a real bid all sit outside this model; the methodology page lists the omissions in full. Replace every default in the calculator below with your own figures.

Example estimates at three bill levels

All three rows hold the same assumptions (90% offset, a south-facing 20-degree unshaded roof, 0.84 derate, no battery, 3% rate escalation, 0.5% degradation, 25 years); only the monthly bill changes. The full default set and every equation are on the methodology page. Replace them in the calculator below with your own figures before treating any row as yours.

At a $150 monthly bill the model sizes a 6.39 kW array producing about 10,182 kWh in year one, needing roughly 351 sq ft of usable roof, with a gross cost of $14,370 and a net cost of $14,370. Year-one savings are $1,065, and the interpolated payback is 13.7 years.

Texas incentive and tariff stack

No statewide residential solar tax credit or flat grant could be verified in our November 2026 review. State and local programs change; check DSIRE and your utility before assuming $0 or assuming a rebate.

Texas has no statewide net-metering mandate; buyback terms and rebates are set by each utility or municipal provider.

Texas: no statewide net-metering mandate. Retail plans, co-ops and municipal utilities each set their own buyback terms — some near retail, some near zero.

Where these numbers come from

• Electricity rate: 15.91 ¢/kWh is the EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A August 2026 residential value for Texas, reproduced verbatim. EIA flags 2026 values as preliminary. Table 5.6.B is a year-to-date series and was not mixed in.
• Installed cost: 2.25 $/W — EnergySage state marketplace average, September 2026.
• Solar resource: 5.2 peak sun hours/day, southeast humid-subtropical band (a planning band, not a station measurement). Use NREL PVWatts for an address-level figure.
• Export regime: Texas: no statewide net-metering mandate. Retail plans, co-ops and municipal utilities each set their own buyback terms — some near retail, some near zero.
• Federal credit: $0. IRC section 25D was terminated for expenditures made after December 31, 2025 under Public Law 119-21.

How Texas compares with the nation and its neighbours

At the U.S. average of 18.16 ¢/kWh and a 2.80 $/W modeling benchmark, the same $150 bill sizes a 6.06 kW array with a $16,972 net cost and a 16.1-year payback. The neighbouring states below show how quickly the inputs change across a border — and why copying a national estimate into a Texas proposal is a mistake.

What to verify first in Texas

• Both sides of the meter matter. At 15.91 cents/kWh, close to the 18.16-cent national average, neither the avoided retail rate nor the export credit dominates; a change to either can shift the 13.7 years payback. Model both before agreeing to an array size.
• Price is measured here. The 2.25 $/W figure is an EnergySage September 2026 marketplace average for this state. Compare quotes against it on the same pre-incentive cash basis; financed prices are not comparable.
• Confirm the export rule version. A statewide rule was verified for this state and is described above, but eligibility windows and caps move: check the version that applies to your interconnection date.
• Check the incentive cap and carryforward. A state credit is applied in this model; confirm the statutory cap, whether unused amounts carry forward and whether the program has a waitlist before treating it as cash.

Before you sign in Texas

• Get your utility's export credit in cents per kWh, in writing, and check whether it is locked.
• Compare at least three written quotes on $/W before incentives, with cash and financed prices separated.
• Confirm the Texas incentive stack on DSIRE and your utility program page — caps, carryforwards and waitlists change.
• Ask for a bill-impact analysis built on your 12 months of interval data, not a single annual average.
• If a proposal still shows a 30% federal credit on a 2026 installation, treat every number in it as unverified.